NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth anniversary Monday after four consecutive years of gains. Based on Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on Oct. 12, 2022. That low marked the index’s lowest close since November 2020, with the benchmark ending the 2022 session at 3,577.03. As of Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026 and approaching record levels. It also gained 1.2% over the past week.
This current rally is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and it is the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% increase, however, remains below the 184% average gain seen across the bull markets examined in the study. Earlier cycles experienced much more substantial cumulative growth, with the 2009-to-2020 bull market rising 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle increasing by 582%. These two periods continue to rank among the strongest in historical comparisons.
Historical data suggests that many bull markets that reach this stage still yield positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also notes an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect past market behavior and do not guarantee similar outcomes for the current cycle.
Earnings Growth Reinforces Market Resilience
Corporate earnings have shown notable strength during this phase of the rally. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of Oct. 9 were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. When the quarter closed on Sept. 30, the growth rate was 29.2%. By Oct. 9, 84% of the 19 index companies that reported earnings surpassed analyst estimates, with their combined earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Expectations for the remainder of the year are also high. Analysts project that fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. Full-year earnings growth for 2026 is forecasted at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms account for roughly 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates, and they also make up approximately 75% of the revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. The data underscores technology-related sectors as central to ongoing earnings revisions.
Interest Rates Continue to Shape Market Conditions
The market’s upward trajectory persists amid elevated U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16. The central bank indicated that economic activity remains solid and inflation continues to be elevated. Projections released in September suggest median economic growth of 2.3% for 2026 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields remain close to multi-year highs as the bull market reaches its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct. 9, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. On that same day, the S&P 500 closed 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. As stocks enter their fifth year, they do so near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs that are higher than those seen in earlier bull markets.